The September meeting of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) saw the central bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. The target range for the Fed funds rate was reduced by 50bps to 4.75-5.00%. It marks the first rate change from the Fed in nine meetings. The decision by the FOMC to cut rates by 50bps was not unanimous, with one member (Bowman) preferring a 25bps reduction.

The November meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) saw the central bank lower Bank rate by 25bps to 4.75%. This was the second rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE) in three meetings. Subsequent to this, the BoE cuts rates for the first time in August, following its rate tightening cycle, which had been in place since the end of 2021. 

Growth in Ireland’s key trading partners uneven, geopolitical risks to the fore. Irish economy expected to grow at a moderate pace in the coming years. Households remain cautious in spending patterns. US dollar dominance tested by macro trends.

The October meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council saw the central bank cut interest rates for a third time this year. It reduced rates by 25bps, with the Deposit rate lowered to 3.25%, while the Re-fi rate was decreased to 3.40%. Today’s policy easing represents the first consecutive rate cuts from the ECB in 13 years, as it also lowered rates at its previous meeting in September.

The manu. PMI fell to 49.4 in Sep, consistent with conditions in the sector deteriorating. Output contracted for the first time since June, while new orders/exports remained weak. Traditional industrial production was 7.0% higher YoY in the 3 mths to August

World economy continues to exhibit resilience. However, subdued growth evident again in 2024, with US outperformance starting to wane, UK accelerating, and Eurozone flagging.  Core inflation remains sticky in some markets, particularly the UK, with consumer spending underpinning high core inflation, however, headline inflation is now close to target in all markets.

Renewed momentum in Irish residential property prices...

Historic FX & Interest Rates for 2023....